* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP122010 09/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 7 18 25 35 51 60 47 45 44 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 3 -1 0 10 3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 221 205 223 244 251 256 278 340 1 22 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.6 30.6 29.7 27.1 18.8 17.1 16.1 15.4 14.7 14.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 173 173 163 136 62 63 63 61 61 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -51.1 -52.3 -52.5 -54.2 -54.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 5 3 2 4 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 60 55 46 39 24 20 29 30 21 18 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 78 79 88 75 26 -34 -67 -60 -82 -83 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 26 31 16 -9 -35 -13 -44 -76 -78 -20 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 39 -58 -146 -183 -403 -678 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.6 29.0 30.2 31.4 34.4 36.8 40.2 42.4 44.4 45.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.0 111.3 111.2 111.1 111.2 110.3 109.0 108.0 106.6 106.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 13 14 15 15 11 10 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 45 97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 7. 4. -1. -5. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -12. -26. -42. -50. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 13. 11. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 6. 13. 18. 20. 20. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 8. -3. -19. -40. -56. -64. -71. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122010 GEORGETTE 09/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122010 GEORGETTE 09/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED