* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 47 49 50 50 48 43 36 29 26 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 47 49 50 50 48 43 36 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 49 52 55 55 54 50 45 39 SHEAR (KT) 2 4 8 6 2 7 9 13 17 30 37 38 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 1 1 -5 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 85 223 265 299 300 260 233 256 242 243 241 253 257 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 121 122 122 123 122 122 121 120 121 122 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 107 108 109 111 110 111 109 109 109 112 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -54.2 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 55 51 52 49 50 49 50 48 42 43 40 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 88 82 68 59 44 37 37 43 46 38 21 16 13 200 MB DIV 44 11 9 13 24 23 4 7 9 -6 6 6 24 LAND (KM) 1392 1375 1359 1373 1388 1442 1526 1619 1698 1791 1899 2081 2315 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 30.2 30.1 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.7 31.4 32.3 33.2 34.2 35.3 37.1 39.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 0 2 2 3 5 6 5 7 7 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 10 9 10 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 7. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 3. -4. -11. -14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/22/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)