* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 39 52 68 83 93 105 109 115 116 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 39 52 68 83 56 55 51 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 46 60 77 55 53 61 38 30 SHEAR (KT) 16 8 3 7 14 15 14 9 10 7 4 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 31 69 49 28 45 51 66 56 56 44 19 36 72 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.6 30.0 30.3 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 170 170 168 170 170 163 163 170 171 164 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 169 172 172 170 171 171 161 161 166 167 152 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 8 8 7 9 8 9 7 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 68 69 70 68 71 69 76 75 77 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 15 13 15 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 29 43 59 72 81 91 95 113 132 130 77 98 106 200 MB DIV 28 25 32 48 64 49 57 61 70 67 41 63 59 LAND (KM) 29 73 169 209 259 427 324 75 -73 54 -28 -176 -108 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.0 17.6 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.4 73.4 74.6 75.7 78.0 80.2 82.5 84.7 86.8 88.5 89.9 90.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 91 96 102 114 65 77 3 0 45 99 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 4. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 14. 27. 43. 58. 68. 80. 84. 90. 91. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/22/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/22/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)