* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP122010 09/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 40 43 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 19 26 36 41 54 60 40 42 36 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 1 3 -5 1 5 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 193 221 240 248 253 258 303 354 10 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.2 28.5 24.3 18.5 16.9 16.2 15.8 15.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 168 151 107 62 62 61 61 60 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.2 -52.0 -51.8 -53.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 54 46 40 33 22 20 27 27 21 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 85 87 68 25 21 -56 -28 -36 -72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 23 5 -8 -6 -2 0 -65 -74 -56 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 34 -29 -83 -132 -195 -435 -779 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.7 29.7 31.1 32.4 34.6 37.6 39.8 41.6 42.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.4 111.6 111.6 111.6 110.9 109.8 109.1 107.5 106.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 13 12 14 13 11 9 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 83 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 12 CX,CY: -2/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 3. 6. 4. 0. -5. -8. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -3. -15. -30. -44. -55. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 7. 13. 17. 18. 17. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 8. -5. -24. -44. -57. -66. -72. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122010 GEORGETTE 09/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122010 GEORGETTE 09/22/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY