* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 44 45 46 46 44 39 31 25 21 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 44 45 46 46 44 39 31 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 42 43 46 49 51 51 49 44 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 5 6 8 14 17 26 33 46 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 228 262 285 284 249 271 226 253 244 251 237 250 244 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 122 122 121 119 119 118 118 117 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 108 109 109 109 107 107 107 106 105 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -54.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 53 50 50 46 45 44 42 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 84 71 66 60 61 49 56 47 53 29 14 1 -9 200 MB DIV 29 10 10 21 33 21 0 10 9 7 8 -5 4 LAND (KM) 1328 1307 1286 1316 1345 1428 1470 1529 1632 1751 1872 2025 2201 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.5 23.5 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.5 29.7 30.4 30.9 31.6 32.7 33.9 35.1 36.6 38.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 3 3 4 4 6 7 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -9. -15. -19. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)