* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 64 79 91 101 106 110 112 115 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 64 79 91 101 106 82 45 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 38 43 49 63 82 101 117 129 103 51 34 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 13 14 11 13 8 9 6 6 4 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 48 27 38 48 64 40 51 32 32 43 356 9 133 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 170 170 170 168 161 166 169 170 165 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 171 171 172 172 171 168 159 163 163 159 150 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.1 -51.9 -51.5 -52.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 7 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 67 70 67 70 66 74 71 76 77 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 13 14 15 15 13 11 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 43 55 63 71 85 97 103 118 136 99 89 107 101 200 MB DIV 33 22 41 56 50 45 29 46 73 30 58 35 44 LAND (KM) 35 116 214 249 302 428 279 46 34 116 -42 -159 -153 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.2 17.8 17.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 71.6 72.7 73.7 74.9 76.0 78.4 80.6 82.9 85.1 87.1 88.6 89.7 90.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 60 102 96 113 114 72 83 2 37 124 85 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 34. 49. 61. 71. 76. 80. 82. 85. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)