* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972010 09/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 22 24 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 22 24 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 22 23 26 28 29 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 9 8 6 8 9 6 9 13 22 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 -8 -5 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 257 249 265 265 259 263 282 306 351 343 331 319 302 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 134 133 133 133 133 134 136 137 137 139 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 51 51 54 49 46 41 40 39 38 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -15 -17 -19 -16 -12 0 15 33 46 60 57 200 MB DIV 23 35 35 34 33 3 -7 -6 -18 -1 -14 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 595 592 599 623 656 739 863 993 1144 1302 1466 1620 1737 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.5 11.9 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 156.4 157.1 157.7 158.5 159.2 160.6 162.2 163.9 165.8 167.7 169.4 170.8 172.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 21 23 14 20 34 31 34 40 40 43 51 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY