* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 49 56 61 63 65 68 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 49 56 61 63 65 68 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 36 40 43 46 49 SHEAR (KT) 16 19 17 16 13 10 12 14 12 10 12 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -5 1 -1 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 58 54 71 82 84 99 93 128 129 133 123 105 130 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 154 155 157 158 155 153 148 145 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 8 9 7 10 8 9 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 84 86 84 83 81 81 79 80 76 76 70 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 85 79 69 69 63 60 58 75 93 82 82 77 200 MB DIV 77 78 73 58 56 39 32 41 45 47 21 38 22 LAND (KM) 231 204 177 156 146 146 178 242 355 499 659 749 756 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.5 98.1 98.8 99.5 101.1 102.9 104.8 106.7 108.6 110.4 111.9 113.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 10 13 11 16 32 10 11 8 6 7 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 25. 33. 38. 42. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 29. 36. 41. 43. 45. 48. 49. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED