* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 37 38 39 39 38 33 26 22 18 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 37 38 39 39 38 33 26 22 18 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 34 35 38 41 42 41 39 36 32 29 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 6 4 5 6 13 18 27 35 42 39 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 -1 -4 2 2 0 0 0 -1 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 280 305 323 280 273 237 261 253 257 248 260 251 256 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 121 122 121 120 118 117 116 115 116 117 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 107 108 108 108 106 105 104 103 105 105 106 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 50 51 54 49 44 46 37 34 35 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 70 63 55 59 56 54 52 42 34 12 -2 -21 -47 200 MB DIV 2 7 21 34 33 20 11 1 -3 -3 -2 -7 4 LAND (KM) 1268 1274 1281 1305 1330 1392 1458 1519 1596 1725 1892 2052 2200 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.5 23.5 24.7 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.1 30.9 31.6 32.4 33.7 35.3 36.8 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 2 3 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 1. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -9. -13. -17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/23/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)