* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 60 73 85 96 102 109 111 113 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 60 73 58 67 64 41 31 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 42 47 60 77 65 76 95 49 33 29 SHEAR (KT) 6 15 14 13 10 12 9 8 5 5 4 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 16 31 45 63 55 46 41 57 8 38 89 111 100 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 170 170 163 164 169 170 167 163 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 172 172 172 172 162 161 163 164 153 147 149 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 7 9 9 10 8 10 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 69 69 67 69 69 72 72 72 74 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 10 9 10 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 70 83 89 101 108 117 107 82 86 86 102 200 MB DIV 19 28 48 43 48 58 34 65 58 52 42 39 41 LAND (KM) 156 222 270 337 429 333 75 -30 74 -10 -127 -153 -188 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.4 17.2 17.7 17.7 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 74.2 75.3 76.5 77.7 80.1 82.5 84.8 86.7 88.3 89.4 90.1 90.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 101 99 117 100 70 81 3 79 91 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 30. 43. 55. 66. 72. 79. 81. 83. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/23/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)