* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 43 49 52 53 55 59 62 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 43 49 52 53 55 59 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 29 31 33 36 40 45 SHEAR (KT) 25 24 24 22 24 16 17 15 19 17 15 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -3 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 51 66 74 72 73 105 104 116 112 108 115 100 119 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 155 155 154 151 149 147 149 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 84 82 80 80 77 75 70 68 63 65 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 79 69 67 65 39 53 69 80 64 72 76 71 200 MB DIV 80 67 49 50 43 6 22 31 34 21 27 2 3 LAND (KM) 262 251 239 247 256 270 353 454 608 784 916 958 948 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.2 15.9 15.4 15.0 14.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.2 100.7 101.5 102.2 103.9 105.8 107.7 109.4 111.1 112.5 113.4 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 9 12 15 11 8 8 8 10 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 37. 41. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 29. 32. 33. 35. 39. 42. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY