* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL122010 09/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 18 18 19 22 26 32 SHEAR (KT) 41 38 44 44 43 44 38 20 8 10 10 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 -4 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 291 291 290 288 284 284 296 286 305 258 347 306 346 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 117 118 119 120 123 125 128 131 135 138 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 97 98 99 99 102 107 110 114 117 121 123 125 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 23 25 25 27 28 29 30 32 29 30 32 34 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -12 -23 -19 -32 -32 -20 -23 -24 -22 -22 -28 200 MB DIV -8 0 -16 -16 -10 -41 -36 -31 -16 -2 0 1 -7 LAND (KM) 2050 2075 2101 2116 2133 2193 2298 2398 2423 2208 1988 1785 1591 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.0 31.5 31.1 30.7 29.8 28.5 27.1 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.8 38.2 38.6 39.1 39.5 40.1 40.7 41.8 43.6 45.6 47.7 49.7 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 6 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 3 5 7 7 14 17 18 27 32 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 1. -7. -11. -13. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -11. -13. -12. -9. -3. 0. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122010 JULIA 09/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122010 JULIA 09/23/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122010 JULIA 09/23/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)