* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 32 34 37 39 39 35 31 28 27 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 32 34 37 39 39 35 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 28 30 33 34 33 32 30 28 26 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 4 5 10 13 20 24 35 31 39 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 -1 -3 2 1 2 4 4 -2 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 292 315 283 276 273 216 258 241 257 249 244 234 243 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 122 121 121 119 117 115 116 116 116 118 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 109 109 109 107 105 103 104 105 105 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.9 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 49 46 46 41 34 33 29 27 32 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 13 12 12 12 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 65 63 67 67 65 68 59 64 44 31 11 -7 -25 200 MB DIV 13 20 31 33 27 21 8 5 6 0 -12 0 14 LAND (KM) 1242 1263 1283 1325 1366 1414 1482 1547 1627 1759 1934 2085 2228 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.4 23.8 25.0 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.4 31.2 31.9 32.7 34.0 35.7 37.1 38.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 6 5 5 6 9 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 3 4 6 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 3. 0. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 5. 1. -2. -3. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/23/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)