* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952010 09/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 42 52 64 75 84 90 96 99 100 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 42 52 64 75 84 55 37 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 48 60 73 88 60 39 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 14 13 15 13 10 6 2 5 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 0 4 -3 -1 -1 2 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 1 34 52 49 41 58 30 28 15 341 251 184 202 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 29.7 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 171 161 168 168 169 169 162 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 173 173 173 160 162 159 159 158 148 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 10 7 9 7 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 69 69 68 67 70 74 78 79 78 75 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 71 70 73 83 96 115 111 107 83 81 93 104 121 200 MB DIV 15 31 35 39 42 37 28 38 62 65 66 57 46 LAND (KM) 274 350 377 374 311 53 36 94 19 -42 -54 -67 -32 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.6 16.8 17.5 18.7 19.4 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 76.1 77.3 78.8 80.3 83.1 85.3 86.9 88.1 88.6 88.5 88.1 87.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 15 14 13 9 7 5 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 114 118 84 75 93 3 37 118 16 93 79 90 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 27. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 12. 22. 34. 45. 54. 60. 66. 69. 70. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952010 INVEST 09/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952010 INVEST 09/23/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952010 INVEST 09/23/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)