* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 38 42 44 45 47 50 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 33 38 42 44 45 47 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 27 28 29 30 31 34 SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 17 14 17 18 20 19 20 23 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -4 -4 -3 2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 71 82 85 87 98 104 121 118 117 111 114 117 114 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 156 156 155 150 145 145 147 149 147 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 10 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 77 77 74 71 61 59 57 61 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 65 64 57 38 48 60 57 53 57 59 49 32 200 MB DIV 47 39 30 31 10 6 -4 21 -1 -19 -20 -10 -24 LAND (KM) 254 247 241 256 246 329 428 588 760 880 993 1031 1026 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.2 15.5 14.8 14.7 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.5 102.1 103.0 103.8 105.8 107.9 109.8 111.5 113.0 114.0 114.6 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 4 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 3 9 13 21 20 10 8 7 6 12 10 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 397 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 27. 30. 32. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING