* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 44 46 50 50 49 47 42 35 30 30 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 44 46 50 50 49 47 42 35 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 39 41 43 47 49 49 47 44 42 38 36 SHEAR (KT) 2 1 5 9 5 13 12 22 24 31 34 33 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -2 1 4 3 6 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 3 318 263 269 282 266 243 259 252 257 228 234 237 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 120 119 119 116 114 113 114 115 116 116 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 108 107 107 103 101 100 102 104 104 101 101 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 48 48 46 46 45 41 40 36 37 36 37 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 70 73 73 67 59 48 41 21 -2 -22 -38 -48 200 MB DIV 17 28 31 20 25 9 11 8 5 -10 -10 5 30 LAND (KM) 1222 1249 1278 1294 1311 1378 1433 1482 1575 1707 1909 2042 2124 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.9 23.0 24.5 25.6 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 30.2 30.8 31.3 32.2 33.5 35.4 36.6 37.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 7 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 1 3 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 15. 15. 14. 12. 7. 0. -5. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/23/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)