* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152010 09/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 46 58 69 81 88 96 100 102 102 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 46 58 59 71 78 48 41 31 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 41 51 59 74 91 60 40 36 39 SHEAR (KT) 20 17 17 14 17 9 13 2 3 3 2 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 0 2 0 -2 0 2 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 38 52 56 43 55 34 39 21 355 353 166 204 194 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 167 162 167 170 169 168 165 160 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 173 173 168 158 160 160 157 152 150 145 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 10 9 9 8 9 7 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 69 69 71 70 67 70 71 77 78 79 78 75 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 11 12 12 12 11 11 8 10 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 71 74 85 96 102 116 108 103 81 87 97 113 134 200 MB DIV 31 40 40 43 43 47 41 56 64 69 70 53 49 LAND (KM) 351 401 409 312 161 2 32 80 0 -31 0 -19 16 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.3 19.0 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 77.6 78.9 80.3 81.7 84.1 85.9 87.3 88.2 88.5 88.2 87.7 87.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 10 8 6 4 2 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 114 75 74 89 10 1 22 114 1 91 8 45 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 28. 39. 51. 58. 66. 70. 72. 72. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 FIFTEEN 09/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 FIFTEEN 09/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 FIFTEEN 09/23/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)