* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 31 37 42 45 46 46 48 51 55 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 31 37 42 45 46 46 48 51 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 28 28 29 31 33 37 SHEAR (KT) 23 26 25 19 19 19 17 24 22 22 23 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 71 65 70 87 97 98 97 109 110 110 101 109 111 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 151 145 143 148 150 148 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 77 74 71 62 60 56 61 60 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 71 63 43 40 62 55 50 51 58 48 32 19 200 MB DIV 46 38 22 18 12 22 -11 -5 -19 -28 -23 0 2 LAND (KM) 227 251 244 268 307 413 597 743 881 1016 1106 1102 1046 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.4 15.6 14.8 14.3 14.4 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.7 103.5 104.5 105.5 107.7 109.9 111.7 113.3 114.5 115.3 115.4 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 6 3 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 14 8 10 8 6 5 12 12 16 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 26. 28. 31. 35. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED