* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 40 40 39 34 29 24 21 20 21 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 40 40 39 34 29 24 21 20 21 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 40 42 41 39 35 32 30 29 31 SHEAR (KT) 2 6 10 7 12 18 26 35 40 25 24 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 4 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 78 262 255 246 246 266 241 251 248 257 258 277 276 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 119 117 114 112 111 110 110 112 115 117 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 109 107 104 102 98 96 96 99 101 101 101 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.9 -54.7 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 49 47 45 47 44 40 38 33 33 32 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 72 72 68 59 52 42 33 16 1 -28 -47 -60 -55 200 MB DIV 18 33 24 24 18 11 8 -8 -13 -7 -10 6 -5 LAND (KM) 1191 1201 1182 1191 1206 1306 1402 1494 1572 1691 1859 2010 2153 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.9 23.4 24.4 24.9 25.9 27.5 28.7 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.0 33.0 34.3 35.5 36.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 8 9 7 5 5 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. -1. -6. -11. -14. -15. -14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)