* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 56 62 73 84 93 100 104 106 107 104 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 56 62 51 65 74 63 43 33 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 51 58 65 55 71 89 91 54 37 30 32 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 16 15 11 12 5 6 5 1 6 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 4 -1 0 1 5 4 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 49 41 35 56 50 27 37 30 171 175 150 143 172 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 165 161 165 168 169 168 168 161 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 173 166 159 160 160 158 155 153 145 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.5 -52.2 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 10 8 9 7 8 5 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 67 68 68 75 79 82 82 80 78 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 11 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 77 86 93 97 109 106 114 86 79 82 103 133 142 200 MB DIV 33 28 31 37 44 21 44 50 93 81 85 40 57 LAND (KM) 403 401 290 150 43 -9 86 43 -21 -42 -49 -55 10 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 79.1 80.5 81.8 83.1 85.1 86.7 87.8 88.4 88.6 88.4 88.0 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 11 9 7 4 3 3 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 73 75 91 8 2 0 115 51 93 85 79 90 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 33. 44. 53. 60. 64. 66. 67. 64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)