* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 39 37 32 27 25 23 23 22 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 39 37 32 27 25 23 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 39 41 40 38 34 31 29 30 32 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 11 13 13 29 43 32 22 20 16 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 -1 0 4 5 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 162 209 188 215 257 249 249 245 259 253 275 282 277 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 118 116 114 111 110 110 112 113 114 117 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 108 106 103 100 99 98 98 98 99 101 102 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -53.6 -54.4 -55.0 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 51 44 45 43 44 42 41 33 28 29 31 36 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 65 63 61 55 43 40 32 19 -9 -27 -44 -44 -45 200 MB DIV 19 15 12 8 5 29 10 -7 -9 -15 7 4 -9 LAND (KM) 1160 1167 1165 1187 1215 1276 1362 1481 1615 1748 1852 2008 2186 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.0 20.7 22.0 23.5 24.8 26.0 27.0 27.9 28.9 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.3 30.1 31.1 32.2 33.3 34.1 35.4 36.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -3. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/24/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)