* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 58 69 81 91 97 102 103 102 98 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 48 49 61 46 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 56 54 51 66 52 35 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 11 11 7 3 4 5 4 6 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 -1 0 1 5 1 -4 -6 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 69 62 66 56 58 44 84 34 253 117 152 166 179 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 167 161 161 168 170 169 166 161 161 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 167 160 158 163 164 158 150 142 142 142 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 9 9 7 9 7 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 71 71 72 77 78 82 81 79 77 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 96 100 111 110 113 102 81 91 99 119 127 140 200 MB DIV 42 36 62 57 47 64 66 69 72 53 28 37 52 LAND (KM) 437 306 172 48 -9 33 52 -63 -105 -126 -126 -130 -135 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.3 18.3 18.6 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.1 80.4 81.6 82.8 83.9 86.0 87.8 88.8 89.2 89.4 89.4 89.4 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 8 4 3 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 75 83 55 2 0 22 62 100 0 0 0 0 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 29. 41. 51. 57. 62. 63. 62. 58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)