* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972010 09/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 22 22 21 22 21 21 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 22 22 21 22 21 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 22 23 24 24 23 22 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 10 10 11 12 18 20 26 26 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 0 -1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 228 232 250 259 259 296 319 319 311 314 303 299 283 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 133 134 135 136 138 139 140 141 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 52 51 44 46 39 37 38 39 35 38 48 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -12 -8 -9 -4 6 25 37 38 41 39 43 37 200 MB DIV 20 0 -16 -34 -35 -22 2 1 -18 -1 24 52 59 LAND (KM) 673 726 784 860 927 1090 1273 1465 1644 1803 1949 2058 2123 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 13.6 13.1 12.7 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.2 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 159.9 160.7 161.4 162.3 163.1 165.2 167.4 169.6 171.4 173.0 174.4 175.5 176.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 32 30 30 31 39 40 44 54 56 56 57 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY