* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 32 35 37 39 41 43 45 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 32 35 37 39 41 43 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 29 30 32 34 SHEAR (KT) 21 14 13 13 13 14 18 13 14 13 15 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 -4 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 64 70 79 99 121 114 123 129 140 137 158 150 168 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 27.7 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 155 152 142 136 138 141 143 140 139 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 6 5 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 79 77 72 70 68 62 59 55 58 55 56 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 54 43 45 52 49 55 50 52 48 42 28 30 200 MB DIV 25 16 7 22 14 5 -23 -32 -29 -18 3 -9 -17 LAND (KM) 200 189 216 265 321 516 621 758 914 1032 1083 1067 986 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.6 17.2 16.5 16.0 15.9 16.1 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.8 104.8 106.0 107.2 109.7 111.9 114.0 115.5 116.6 117.2 117.2 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 11 11 9 7 4 1 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 16 11 11 10 4 3 8 10 11 11 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY