* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 45 40 34 29 26 25 23 22 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 45 40 34 29 26 25 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 46 47 47 45 41 37 35 35 37 39 SHEAR (KT) 4 5 10 16 15 22 36 40 25 18 14 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 -2 0 1 5 0 -2 -1 -3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 189 190 222 264 276 240 247 246 240 241 295 286 282 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 115 114 111 109 108 108 108 110 110 112 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 105 103 100 97 96 95 94 94 95 96 96 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -53.5 -54.1 -54.9 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 45 44 45 46 44 42 38 28 27 30 36 36 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 52 43 43 36 38 16 -9 -29 -38 -33 -30 200 MB DIV 13 13 14 3 12 15 -17 -5 -15 -5 -4 -12 -10 LAND (KM) 1160 1154 1153 1169 1192 1235 1300 1385 1497 1590 1671 1766 1840 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.8 24.2 25.4 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.6 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.4 30.0 30.9 31.6 32.2 32.9 33.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/24/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)