* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 60 66 77 89 98 106 109 110 109 105 V (KT) LAND 45 49 42 36 33 47 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 44 37 33 46 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 11 10 6 2 4 7 11 2 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -2 1 0 4 -3 -5 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 65 65 62 52 99 61 113 88 134 209 170 192 SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 170 163 161 165 166 170 169 165 160 160 159 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 164 161 163 162 162 160 150 145 144 143 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -52.6 -51.5 -52.3 -51.5 -52.2 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 71 70 75 81 82 85 85 81 78 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 102 119 118 120 112 85 85 103 112 134 137 147 200 MB DIV 56 65 57 63 52 58 60 77 61 53 45 76 44 LAND (KM) 204 64 -47 -65 -8 57 -66 -155 -154 -116 -99 -73 -34 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 82.6 83.9 85.1 86.2 87.9 89.1 89.9 90.3 90.3 90.0 90.0 90.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 77 3 49 80 0 38 100 0 0 0 41 35 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 32. 44. 53. 61. 64. 65. 64. 60. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)