* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972010 09/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 29 30 30 31 33 32 30 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 26 29 30 30 31 33 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 29 31 33 34 33 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 14 16 18 20 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -5 -7 -9 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 169 217 240 241 269 344 341 341 317 318 311 302 278 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 138 138 139 141 142 145 144 145 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 53 49 51 50 48 42 40 43 40 46 45 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -17 -18 -12 -3 8 31 35 31 30 51 46 18 200 MB DIV 0 -19 -27 -22 -14 13 -6 -9 -36 -10 25 38 79 LAND (KM) 799 874 954 1056 1142 1330 1542 1738 1917 2092 2231 2318 2361 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.1 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.8 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 160.6 161.5 162.4 163.5 164.5 166.9 169.3 171.4 173.2 174.9 176.3 177.4 178.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 37 38 41 24 42 54 63 58 59 62 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED