* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 34 37 39 40 41 41 41 41 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 34 37 39 40 41 41 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 29 29 30 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 11 13 16 12 13 11 12 11 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 -3 2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 80 102 123 120 118 121 142 144 161 182 180 184 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 148 136 134 134 136 132 128 126 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 77 74 70 70 68 59 59 55 58 53 55 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 43 42 50 51 50 43 47 49 38 33 21 16 200 MB DIV 18 8 23 13 6 -2 -20 -34 -29 -3 -6 -17 -16 LAND (KM) 168 192 230 286 379 550 652 808 958 1052 1064 1067 1055 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.0 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.5 105.6 106.9 108.2 110.8 113.1 115.2 116.7 117.9 118.4 118.6 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 13 13 13 6 2 4 7 8 16 6 4 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED