* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 60 62 61 58 51 43 36 27 20 18 18 V (KT) LAND 55 59 60 62 61 58 51 43 36 27 20 18 18 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 65 64 60 54 49 44 40 37 35 35 SHEAR (KT) 9 15 18 17 13 24 30 33 34 37 36 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 1 3 7 4 2 2 0 -1 -1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 225 245 284 284 258 238 241 238 232 237 230 245 270 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 112 110 109 107 106 106 107 107 108 109 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 101 101 100 98 95 93 92 92 91 91 93 92 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -53.3 -54.0 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 45 42 40 33 30 29 30 33 34 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 44 47 42 48 36 20 -8 -27 -28 -28 -20 200 MB DIV 2 16 14 21 17 -1 1 -10 -14 -2 4 4 -3 LAND (KM) 1134 1131 1131 1151 1172 1228 1294 1367 1443 1514 1564 1612 1678 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.7 22.5 24.1 25.3 26.4 27.4 28.2 28.7 29.4 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -4. -12. -19. -28. -35. -37. -37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/24/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)