* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 61 67 78 87 96 102 105 105 102 98 V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 31 41 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 34 31 39 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 11 9 9 1 3 9 3 6 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 0 3 -5 3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 67 59 39 44 22 11 307 88 151 165 213 185 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 165 167 172 166 163 160 157 158 156 156 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 159 164 166 171 157 149 143 139 142 138 138 143 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 6 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 69 73 77 80 81 83 82 78 77 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 12 12 11 8 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 132 129 125 119 101 94 107 108 123 117 134 143 200 MB DIV 63 57 81 67 78 41 69 51 51 42 24 52 39 LAND (KM) 21 -54 -63 -10 18 -115 -163 -110 -68 -57 -53 -57 -53 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.8 18.3 18.2 18.4 19.1 19.0 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 84.1 85.2 86.5 87.7 89.8 89.9 90.2 90.7 90.7 90.2 90.2 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 12 13 12 7 4 2 1 3 2 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 49 80 0 2 0 0 40 0 41 35 35 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 395 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 33. 42. 51. 57. 60. 60. 57. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/24/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)