* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP972010 09/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 26 26 26 26 27 25 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 25 26 26 26 26 27 25 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 23 24 25 27 28 29 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 10 16 15 21 19 22 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -7 -5 -7 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 244 256 264 285 306 335 337 324 308 285 285 290 276 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 138 139 139 140 143 144 145 144 143 143 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 45 45 43 43 40 39 40 45 47 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -14 -8 -3 3 17 29 31 30 27 37 23 15 200 MB DIV -23 -32 -33 -26 -15 2 -8 -22 -20 -29 36 20 62 LAND (KM) 840 923 1010 1110 1197 1396 1593 1784 1956 2100 2214 2285 2333 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.0 11.4 10.8 10.3 9.9 9.7 9.9 10.5 LONG(DEG W) 161.2 162.2 163.1 164.3 165.4 167.8 169.9 171.8 173.5 174.9 176.1 177.1 178.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 36 39 42 41 44 58 62 59 58 57 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -25.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY