* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 38 38 39 40 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 38 38 39 40 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 32 34 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 18 20 17 18 14 14 11 16 13 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -4 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 77 77 106 113 117 118 124 129 130 147 153 154 147 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 149 145 136 136 137 137 137 137 139 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 71 70 69 64 64 60 61 56 57 53 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 54 53 50 62 51 51 52 42 34 34 42 200 MB DIV 23 21 19 8 3 -9 -18 -10 -18 10 0 22 14 LAND (KM) 227 275 314 387 470 591 691 794 864 864 809 760 764 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.4 17.0 16.7 16.7 16.9 16.8 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.8 106.9 108.0 109.1 111.2 113.1 114.3 115.0 115.0 114.4 113.3 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 7 5 2 2 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 6 6 3 5 9 15 15 9 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 18. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/24/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY