* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/25/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 72 70 68 59 49 41 32 24 18 18 16 V (KT) LAND 70 72 72 70 68 59 49 41 32 24 18 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 76 74 70 63 55 49 43 40 37 36 37 SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 13 13 29 33 31 37 37 34 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 7 6 2 3 3 -1 0 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 247 283 284 260 235 245 238 233 235 231 234 265 277 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 110 109 108 106 105 106 107 108 108 109 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 100 99 98 97 93 92 92 92 92 92 93 92 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -53.6 -54.5 -55.1 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 43 41 39 31 30 29 32 34 36 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 14 13 14 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 55 43 47 41 47 43 35 7 -18 -29 -29 -22 -26 200 MB DIV 16 14 21 17 15 -5 -6 -13 -1 9 6 15 -27 LAND (KM) 1125 1130 1140 1161 1187 1250 1306 1378 1455 1519 1568 1626 1670 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.4 23.2 24.7 25.7 26.7 27.7 28.5 29.2 30.1 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -19. -21. -24. -26. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -2. -11. -21. -29. -38. -46. -52. -52. -54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/25/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)