* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/25/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 67 72 83 91 99 103 105 106 103 98 V (KT) LAND 50 41 36 40 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 41 36 38 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 34 SHEAR (KT) 15 8 11 11 10 2 7 11 11 11 7 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 79 71 69 64 61 28 88 76 82 81 117 243 202 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 167 170 171 160 155 155 157 157 158 159 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 164 165 169 167 149 139 138 139 140 143 145 141 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -51.4 -52.4 -51.5 -52.5 -51.5 -52.3 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 5 7 6 7 6 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 73 75 77 81 83 85 85 84 81 78 74 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 12 13 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 127 123 116 109 102 94 99 100 107 114 109 98 97 200 MB DIV 59 75 70 60 54 62 82 64 79 49 37 28 30 LAND (KM) -61 -65 -24 10 -17 -182 -168 -168 -193 -185 -139 -66 11 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.8 17.1 17.1 16.9 17.0 17.4 18.0 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.5 86.7 87.9 89.0 90.5 91.0 91.0 90.8 90.7 90.8 91.2 91.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 10 5 1 1 0 1 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 82 86 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 33. 41. 49. 53. 55. 56. 53. 48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)