* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/25/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 24 26 26 28 30 32 34 39 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 24 26 26 28 30 32 34 39 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 23 24 26 28 SHEAR (KT) 19 23 20 22 24 26 22 21 18 16 19 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 98 110 113 116 114 110 99 97 103 108 115 102 99 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 150 147 143 139 139 143 143 147 149 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 6 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 64 61 63 57 58 56 57 52 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 39 50 53 51 51 62 49 60 47 25 25 25 37 200 MB DIV 21 20 3 12 16 -15 -22 -6 6 -1 11 27 27 LAND (KM) 275 312 367 443 524 658 748 854 889 898 897 838 852 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.1 16.7 16.0 15.7 15.4 15.1 14.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.5 107.5 108.5 109.5 111.3 112.8 113.6 113.7 113.2 112.2 110.8 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 2 4 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 8 6 6 4 8 13 13 10 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 19. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/25/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY