* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 64 62 59 53 44 39 32 28 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 65 66 64 62 59 53 44 39 32 28 31 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 65 62 55 49 44 40 38 37 38 40 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 20 25 32 33 33 34 28 18 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 10 5 5 2 1 0 1 0 -6 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 277 270 256 233 238 233 235 218 223 214 259 281 280 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 108 107 106 105 106 106 106 108 108 107 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 100 97 96 94 93 92 91 90 93 92 91 88 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -53.6 -54.4 -55.9 -55.7 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 44 46 44 43 43 37 32 30 32 34 36 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 15 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 38 48 52 38 19 -9 -29 -33 -29 -30 -51 200 MB DIV 9 21 22 16 4 17 -11 -5 7 12 21 -13 -39 LAND (KM) 1140 1150 1166 1186 1210 1264 1351 1414 1450 1513 1593 1651 1692 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.3 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.9 27.4 28.5 29.1 30.1 31.5 32.8 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 7 7 4 4 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -15. -14. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -21. -26. -33. -37. -34. -36. -39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/25/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)