* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 56 61 70 80 89 95 97 97 94 89 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 45 38 30 28 27 27 27 29 27 21 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 49 46 38 30 28 27 27 27 33 41 47 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 8 7 8 9 8 10 12 11 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 75 43 51 43 25 12 35 79 41 112 179 193 213 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 172 171 167 158 157 157 156 154 152 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 165 169 167 159 144 141 142 141 140 138 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 6 8 6 7 6 7 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 76 81 80 80 83 81 79 73 66 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 7 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 114 113 103 101 95 106 93 96 97 106 92 76 200 MB DIV 53 52 48 55 52 77 56 23 26 27 38 13 4 LAND (KM) -36 4 27 -19 -115 -155 -144 -122 -78 -39 30 25 22 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.8 87.9 88.9 89.8 91.1 91.5 92.0 92.8 93.5 94.4 95.1 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 8 4 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 82 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 39 38 3 1 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 36. 44. 50. 52. 52. 49. 44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)