* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 22 24 26 30 31 35 39 44 48 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 22 24 26 30 31 35 39 44 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 24 25 28 30 34 SHEAR (KT) 25 22 24 25 25 20 19 16 17 12 19 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -6 -5 -8 -7 -8 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 100 110 117 113 116 101 105 111 132 134 132 124 114 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 146 144 141 141 141 141 143 145 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 70 65 61 62 59 62 60 61 60 58 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 7 6 6 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 52 48 55 59 56 64 53 47 46 57 57 200 MB DIV 18 2 7 17 6 -14 -25 -1 4 18 20 8 22 LAND (KM) 354 389 445 521 599 711 775 830 822 817 829 845 900 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.4 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.7 14.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.3 108.2 109.1 110.0 111.7 112.7 113.3 113.1 112.7 112.1 111.4 111.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 6 4 1 1 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 8 6 5 8 11 10 8 6 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 5. 6. 10. 14. 19. 23. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/25/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY