* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 52 49 41 33 26 22 21 22 22 22 V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 52 49 41 33 26 22 21 22 22 22 V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 54 52 50 46 42 39 36 34 35 36 38 SHEAR (KT) 16 13 19 27 27 32 29 35 28 26 26 28 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 10 5 3 3 1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 271 259 229 239 240 237 234 232 232 235 264 276 336 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 108 106 105 105 106 107 107 107 107 106 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 96 95 93 92 91 91 91 91 90 89 86 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -54.2 -55.2 -56.1 -56.1 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 44 43 37 31 30 33 34 41 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 15 13 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 42 31 41 40 31 13 -12 -31 -51 -60 -39 -39 -71 200 MB DIV 13 20 15 8 8 -2 -10 1 13 16 12 -29 -28 LAND (KM) 1150 1165 1185 1209 1239 1285 1362 1411 1469 1536 1615 1682 1722 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.7 28.0 29.0 29.9 31.0 32.2 33.3 34.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):354/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -19. -27. -34. -38. -39. -38. -38. -38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/25/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)