* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 34 36 40 51 63 73 80 85 87 87 83 V (KT) LAND 35 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 31 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 34 39 43 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 6 5 6 1 7 8 14 16 13 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 -1 0 0 -5 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 51 75 57 33 10 328 66 114 114 138 163 186 195 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 172 169 165 160 157 157 156 156 155 156 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 168 163 156 149 143 141 139 139 139 140 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 6 8 5 8 5 7 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 73 76 79 80 79 82 81 79 75 72 59 54 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 114 104 104 105 102 101 110 96 116 106 119 106 97 200 MB DIV 59 45 31 52 78 68 21 19 22 33 41 14 -4 LAND (KM) -3 35 -61 -137 -193 -155 -122 -88 -66 -16 47 135 221 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.6 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 88.4 89.4 90.1 90.8 91.5 92.0 92.3 92.4 92.7 93.1 93.6 94.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 7 6 3 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 40 40 0 19 59 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 5. 16. 28. 38. 45. 50. 52. 52. 48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)