* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 30 33 37 39 41 44 48 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 30 33 37 39 41 44 48 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 24 25 27 29 31 34 38 SHEAR (KT) 25 23 24 23 22 17 13 9 8 11 10 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -8 -7 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 95 103 101 100 94 82 72 113 127 138 143 133 150 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 147 145 142 140 137 136 136 138 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 71 67 64 62 62 61 67 65 65 61 63 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 46 55 55 56 62 62 69 67 60 56 65 73 76 200 MB DIV 17 25 35 18 4 -17 4 16 21 8 -8 9 0 LAND (KM) 393 435 490 569 648 750 768 715 665 616 570 541 565 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.6 108.4 109.3 110.2 111.5 112.2 112.2 111.6 110.8 110.1 109.7 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 5 2 2 4 3 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 8 8 6 5 6 6 5 3 4 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 20. 23. 26. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/25/10 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING