* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 36 32 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 36 32 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 44 40 37 35 32 29 27 25 24 25 26 28 SHEAR (KT) 15 22 28 29 32 31 40 37 24 32 28 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 4 0 0 3 0 0 1 -2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 249 235 241 241 239 241 223 230 234 272 278 292 42 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 106 105 105 106 107 108 108 107 107 105 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 96 94 93 92 92 93 92 91 90 90 88 85 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -54.0 -55.4 -56.2 -56.1 -56.3 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 44 45 47 44 39 33 31 32 35 36 38 35 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 13 11 9 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 40 33 23 16 -7 -33 -47 -55 -43 -38 -55 -110 200 MB DIV 18 11 4 8 6 -5 -1 13 14 2 -34 -41 -35 LAND (KM) 1177 1196 1220 1247 1277 1347 1428 1503 1561 1623 1680 1738 1767 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.0 27.3 28.6 29.7 30.6 31.6 32.5 33.6 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 29.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -6. -3. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -25. -32. -37. -37. -37. -35. -34. -34. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/25/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED