* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 31 41 52 65 74 79 79 77 77 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 32 37 38 35 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 35 45 51 53 DIS SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 8 8 6 4 8 9 20 24 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 44 7 2 327 352 321 61 28 144 202 219 222 N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 169 166 163 160 157 157 157 157 158 158 160 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 158 154 151 146 138 138 139 141 142 141 144 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 7 8 7 8 6 7 6 6 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 76 78 78 80 82 80 79 73 61 52 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 12 10 7 8 8 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 99 97 92 90 99 93 107 133 134 107 50 N/A 200 MB DIV 35 21 41 57 77 46 17 23 26 52 4 -13 N/A LAND (KM) -62 -122 -180 -119 -56 -33 -44 -33 11 99 177 278 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.2 18.3 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.4 89.9 90.5 91.1 91.6 91.3 91.4 91.4 92.0 92.4 93.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 5 6 7 5 1 0 1 3 5 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 101 0 0 0 0 44 42 43 0 17 45 62 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 24. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. 1. 11. 22. 35. 44. 49. 49. 47. 47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/25/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)