* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 33 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 33 30 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 37 34 33 29 26 23 21 21 22 23 25 SHEAR (KT) 23 28 28 32 37 36 45 34 30 33 32 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 1 0 2 1 2 -1 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 234 237 241 231 232 223 220 229 251 264 260 281 325 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 106 106 106 107 108 109 109 107 107 105 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 95 94 93 93 93 93 92 92 90 89 88 86 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -53.3 -54.5 -55.8 -56.0 -55.6 -56.0 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 41 43 40 37 33 32 31 34 39 42 39 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 13 11 11 9 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 37 25 16 -6 -30 -38 -35 -20 -29 -54 -72 200 MB DIV 11 18 18 12 -2 0 7 3 14 0 -32 -19 -13 LAND (KM) 1245 1268 1294 1325 1359 1428 1507 1582 1653 1719 1771 1815 1838 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.9 29.0 30.1 31.1 32.0 32.8 33.8 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.8 31.0 31.0 30.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -17. -20. -21. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -22. -29. -34. -34. -33. -33. -31. -29. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED