* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 57 68 78 86 90 89 86 80 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 SHEAR (KT) 6 0 3 2 8 4 6 7 13 15 29 33 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 49 18 18 355 8 46 126 47 186 194 187 193 183 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 158 157 155 155 154 158 159 159 157 156 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 147 143 138 137 135 141 144 144 142 140 139 138 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.6 -51.7 -52.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 7 8 6 8 5 7 5 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 83 83 82 79 77 73 59 48 35 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 10 8 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 114 118 111 106 109 100 125 146 176 179 150 118 200 MB DIV 29 47 75 78 69 26 28 8 43 45 35 34 16 LAND (KM) -196 -150 -111 -100 -88 -100 -77 -55 -83 -86 -96 -27 90 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.9 20.9 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.2 91.7 91.8 91.8 91.8 91.7 91.2 90.4 89.9 89.6 89.7 89.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 6 3 1 0 0 2 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 249 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 27. 38. 48. 56. 60. 59. 56. 50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)