* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 29 32 37 42 47 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 29 32 37 42 47 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 23 24 26 28 31 34 SHEAR (KT) 35 32 31 27 30 28 15 13 13 12 16 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -3 -7 -3 -6 -5 -5 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 89 91 92 84 83 95 117 118 110 119 95 93 107 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 148 146 145 143 142 142 145 147 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 68 65 62 63 63 65 66 62 66 62 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 50 64 65 69 69 69 61 56 52 59 75 80 65 200 MB DIV 47 41 18 14 -8 2 9 8 18 -5 12 6 14 LAND (KM) 561 597 636 664 693 683 603 519 469 477 536 598 667 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.8 16.6 17.1 17.2 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.6 109.2 109.6 110.0 110.2 109.9 109.3 108.8 108.5 108.6 108.9 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 8 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/26/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY