* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LISA AL142010 09/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 27 25 23 21 19 18 18 20 22 24 25 SHEAR (KT) 30 31 37 43 40 41 28 18 27 29 31 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -3 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 -7 -4 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 244 243 236 237 241 228 237 249 265 271 286 305 351 SST (C) 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 106 106 107 109 109 108 106 106 106 106 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 93 93 92 93 95 93 91 89 88 88 89 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -54.3 -55.3 -56.2 -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 44 42 40 37 34 34 34 36 45 46 43 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 11 11 11 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 30 19 16 2 -33 -43 -38 -33 -29 -47 -73 -99 200 MB DIV 1 2 4 -5 -4 4 17 18 5 -27 -40 -35 -10 LAND (KM) 1252 1282 1315 1351 1388 1497 1600 1657 1675 1692 1728 1763 1794 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.6 29.9 30.8 31.4 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.9 LONG(DEG W) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.9 30.5 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -19. -18. -17. -17. -17. -18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142010 LISA 09/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142010 LISA 09/26/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED