* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 42 51 62 71 77 79 77 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 28 25 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 33 35 DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 6 3 4 10 13 8 11 10 16 20 22 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 -1 -1 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 54 54 35 47 29 89 69 122 189 209 208 206 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 155 154 153 153 153 154 157 155 155 155 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 143 139 136 136 136 135 138 141 139 139 139 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 5 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 83 83 81 77 70 60 51 41 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 119 116 107 109 96 95 114 128 102 73 28 N/A 200 MB DIV 54 68 85 98 72 40 26 29 34 34 30 12 N/A LAND (KM) -155 -127 -99 -97 -94 -118 -121 -121 -62 1 65 151 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.5 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.0 92.4 92.5 92.6 92.5 92.4 92.4 92.6 93.0 93.4 93.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 3 1 1 1 0 2 3 3 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 36 58 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 26. 37. 46. 52. 54. 52. 49. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)