* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 09/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 23 25 30 36 41 45 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 23 25 30 36 41 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 22 20 20 19 20 21 22 24 27 SHEAR (KT) 34 31 27 27 30 21 13 10 12 10 11 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -6 -6 -4 -5 -6 -4 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 88 94 87 85 96 108 124 103 100 95 99 89 102 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 148 148 146 144 142 145 146 147 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 64 64 66 65 67 68 66 63 61 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 61 67 72 66 66 60 49 46 60 69 91 80 71 200 MB DIV 39 31 18 16 24 30 30 21 8 -1 17 24 17 LAND (KM) 586 591 598 590 583 515 443 416 426 483 544 590 637 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.4 17.2 17.5 17.2 16.5 15.9 15.7 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.7 108.7 108.5 108.4 108.3 108.4 108.6 109.0 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 0 2 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 6 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. 0. 5. 11. 16. 20. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 09/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 09/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY