* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL152010 09/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 48 56 65 69 70 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 31 28 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 30 34 36 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 11 12 9 12 14 17 20 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -5 -4 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 58 71 20 51 81 122 168 207 211 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 150 150 152 153 154 154 153 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 137 134 132 132 135 138 138 138 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 8 5 8 5 7 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 84 83 82 79 73 66 50 39 31 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 9 10 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 120 110 109 100 74 91 114 104 60 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 96 101 75 55 28 17 31 19 14 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -124 -110 -95 -99 -103 -117 -109 -65 8 83 133 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.7 93.1 93.4 93.5 93.5 93.4 93.3 93.3 93.7 94.1 94.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 2 1 0 0 1 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 62 55 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 23. 31. 40. 44. 45. 42. 43. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152010 MATTHEW 09/26/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)